Data released by China's General Administration of Customs on August 7 shows that in July, China's imports of soybeans and crude oil increased year-on-year, while imports of coal and iron ore declined.

Last month, China's exports exceeded expectations as manufacturers rushed to ship goods ahead of the looming deadline later in the month, taking advantage of the fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington.

Customs data shows that in July, exports from the world's second-largest economy rose 7.2% year-on-year, beating a Reuters poll forecast of 5.4% growth and June's 5.8% increase.

Imports grew 4.1%, compared with 1.1% growth in June. Economists had previously expected a 1.0% decline in imports.

Key Figures

·Soybeans: 11.67 million tonnes in July, up 18.48% year-on-year.

·Crude oil: 47.20 million tonnes in July, up 11.48% year-on-year.

·Unwrought copper: 480,000 tonnes in July, up 9.59% year-on-year.

·Coal: 35.61 million tonnes in July, down 22.94% year-on-year.

·Iron ore: 104.62 million tonnes in July, down 1.26% month-on-month.

·Rare earths (exports): 5,994.3 tonnes in July, down 22.58% month-on-month.

Commodity Trade Data — Analyst Comments

On Soybeans

Wan Chengzhi, analyst at Capital Kyoto Futures, Dalian:

“Brazil's bumper soybean harvest has provided a strong supply base. This year's abundant output means Brazil's peak supply period is expected to last longer than usual and remain high through the fourth quarter.

As for China's soybean purchases from the United States in Q4, there are no concrete shipment details yet — buyers are waiting for the results of China-U.S. trade talks. Overall, there could be a temporary mismatch in supply and demand for imported soybeans in China's domestic market in Q4.”

Rosa Wang, analyst at JCI, Shanghai:

“China's soybean imports in July remained high, and we expect August and September to stay above 10 million tonnes. This suggests the market is preparing for potential uncertainties stemming from China-U.S. trade tensions.”

On Iron Ore

Cao Ying, analyst at SDIC Futures, Beijing:

“The month-on-month decline in iron ore imports was mainly due to price increases in July, which reduced some steel mills' interest in stockpiling.

In addition, Typhoon Wipha hit many regions, delaying customs clearance for some shipments, which also contributed to the decline and worsened port congestion.”

On Crude Oil

Muyu Xu, senior analyst at Kpler, Singapore:

“China's crude oil imports declined month-on-month but rose year-on-year. According to Kpler data, the month-on-month drop was mainly due to reduced imports from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Angola.

Independent refiners made large purchases in June to build up inventories, so direct demand in July was lower.

Current refinery operating rates are not particularly high, which does not support a significant increase in Iranian oil purchases. Furthermore, some independent refiners are facing tight import quotas, prompting them to manage procurement pace more cautiously.

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