Data show that China's exports rebounded in November after an unexpected contraction the previous month, pushing the country's trade surplus above $1 trillion for the first time.

China's exports rose 5.9% year on year in November, while imports increased by less than 2%.

Customs data released on Monday showed that China's exports to the United States fell by nearly 29% year on year. However, amid weakening Sino-U.S. trade, China has been diversifying its export markets, with China's exports expanding into Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America.

China's exports declined slightly by 1% in October. Total exports reached $330.3 billion in November, exceeding economists' expectations, while total imports amounted to $218.6 billion for the month.

According to official data compiled by FactSet, China's trade surplus for the first 11 months of the year approached $1.08 trillion, a record high, surpassing the full-year surplus of $992 billion in 2024.

In late October, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea and reached a one-year Sino-U.S. trade truce. The United States agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, while China pledged to suspend export controls on rare earths—moves that may support China's exports in the coming months.

“November's export data may not yet fully reflect the impact of tariff reductions, which should become more evident in the coming months,” wrote Lynn Song, Chief Economist for Greater China at ING, in a report, referring to future momentum in China's exports.

Official surveys showed that China's factory activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November, and economists said it is still too early to determine whether external demand for China's exports has genuinely rebounded following the trade truce.

With China's exports remaining resilient, economists broadly expect China to achieve its annual growth target of around 5% this year.

Following a high-level meeting in October, Chinese leaders outlined key priorities for developing advanced manufacturing over the next five years—an area expected to further strengthen China's exports. The meeting also emphasized the need to boost domestic consumption, which could help address trade imbalances.

According to Xinhua, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held a meeting on Monday, chaired by Xi Jinping, to discuss economic planning for 2026. Chinese leaders reiterated the principle of “pursuing progress while maintaining stability.”

A Xinhua statement noted that in the face of global “trade frictions,” China needs to better coordinate domestic economic efforts to support sustainable growth in China's exports.

Businesses and investors are closely watching China's annual Central Economic Work Conference, expected later this month, which may provide clearer guidance on policies affecting China's exports and trade strategy.

Luo Zhijiang, Global Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said:

“Trade diversification will remain a long-term strategy for China in responding to trade wars and external shocks, and will continue to shape China's exports.”

He added that a stable global trade environment is unlikely to last long, noting that despite the temporary trade truce, Sino-U.S. relations “remain at an impasse.”

Nevertheless, some economists believe China's exports will continue to gain global market share in the coming years.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2030, China's share of the global export market will rise to 16.5%, up from about 15% currently, driven by China's advantages in advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries.

“We believe China's exports will capture a larger share of global goods trade, despite ongoing trade tensions, rising protectionism, and active industrial policies among G20 economies,” said Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley.