By the End of 2025, China Had Already Purchased Large Volumes of U.S. Soybeans

tendata blogTrade Trends News

ten data blog2026-01-05

China has bought at least 8 million metric tons (7.25 million tons) of U.S. soybeans this year, putting the world’s largest soybean importer on track to fulfill a pledge made two months ago—widely seen as part of a trade truce with Washington.


u.s. soybeans


According to people familiar with the matter, state-owned buyers have continued booking U.S. cargoes through late December, though they requested anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss the purchases.


This extends a buying spree that began in October and has maintained its pace, reassuring U.S. exporters who had been concerned that Beijing’s commitments could waver due to limited visibility and unclear deadlines.


The people said most of the booked cargoes are scheduled to load between December and March.


After U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the White House immediately said China had committed to purchasing at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year.


U.S. officials later clarified that the actual deadline was the end of February. Beijing has not confirmed the pledge, but it has taken steps to reduce tariffs on the crop and remove import bans on three U.S. exporters.


The return of Chinese buyers is welcome news for U.S. exporters, while also serving as a reminder that buying patterns can shift quickly—though this does not yet amount to a full reset.


People familiar with the matter said that while Beijing has been importing U.S. soybeans, state-owned companies have also been purchasing large volumes from Brazil and Argentina. Commercial buyers in particular have remained cautious about sourcing U.S. beans.


By 2025, nearly 80% of Brazil’s soybeans are expected to be shipped to China, with exports through November up 16% year on year.


These trades continued into December despite a seasonally weak sales period and expectations of a record Brazilian harvest.


“We can’t confirm from the Chinese side whether there is a commitment beyond 12 million tons,” said Ben Buckner, a grain and dairy analyst at AgResource Co.


In a report this week, the brokerage said China is seeking to export and may reach a “soft target” of 10 million tons in 2025, with an additional 2 million tons possibly added in January.


Traders said uncertainty over future sales has added pressure to soybean prices, as the agreement has not been formally confirmed by both sides.


Chicago Board of Trade futures fell on Wednesday, the final trading day of the year, with December on track to drop about 7%, marking its worst monthly performance since July 2024.


Illinois corn and soybean farmer Matt Bennett said many growers have been “surprised” by China’s steady buying so far, but added that price performance has been disappointing.


“From our perspective, once you quantify that they’re going to buy 12 million tons, you need something beyond that number to really get everyone excited,” Bennett, co-founder of agricultural advisory firm AgMarket.Net, said in a phone interview.

Earlier this month, Trump announced $12 billion in relief for U.S. farmers, though growers are still waiting for details on how much they will receive before February under the promised support.

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