· December Steel Exports Reach a Monthly Record on Rush Shipments

· Despite a growing global backlash against protectionism, China's steel exports are set to reach an all-time high in 2025.

· Iron ore imports are also expected to surpass last year's record level in 2026.

Reuters - China's steel exports surged to a monthly record in December following Beijing's announcement that export licenses for steel shipments will be required starting in 2026, prompting exporters to ship cargoes ahead of time.

According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on Wednesday, China—the world's largest steel producer—shipped 11.3 million metric tons of steel used in construction and manufacturing last month, marking the highest monthly export volume on record.

Beijing plans to introduce a licensing system for steel exports from 2026 to better regulate outbound shipments, as robust steel exports have triggered a rising wave of protectionist measures globally.

Analysts said some exporters rushed to increase shipments before January, fearing that the export licensing requirement could disrupt future deliveries.

Despite the unexpectedly strong export figures, prolonged weakness in China's property sector continues to weigh on domestic steel consumption.

An official research institution forecasts that after a 5.4% decline in 2025, China's steel demand is expected to fall by another 1% this year.

Even as more countries impose trade barriers on Chinese steel, citing harm to domestic manufacturing, China's full-year steel exports rose 7.5% year-on-year to a record 119.02 million metric tons.

Iron Ore Imports Also Set New Records

Last year, iron ore imports by the world's largest consumer reached an all-time high, driven by low inventories at steel mills and improved steel margins that encouraged mills to book more cargoes.

Since late 2022, inventories at Chinese steel mills have remained relatively low as a crisis-hit property sector has squeezed demand and tightened cash flow.

In addition, analysts noted that strong steel exports have supported firm demand for the key steelmaking raw material.

Iron ore imports rose 8.2% month-on-month in December to a record 119.65 million metric tons, bringing total imports for 2025 to an unprecedented 1.26 billion metric tons, up 1.8% from 2024.

Bai Xin, an analyst at consulting firm Horizon Insights, said global iron ore supply is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2026, with shipments to China projected to increase by 36–38 million metric tons, putting downward pressure on prices this year.

The chart illustrates China's iron ore imports from 2018 to 2025.