China's steel exports reached a monthly record high in December, largely driven by front-loaded shipments after Beijing announced that steel exports will be subject to an export licensing requirement starting in 2026.

According to data released on Wednesday by the General Administration of Customs of China, the world's largest steel producer shipped 11.3 million tons of steel for construction and manufacturing last month—the highest monthly total on record.

Meanwhile, iron ore imports by the world's largest consumer also reached a historic high last year, as low inventories and improved steel margins encouraged mills to book more cargoes.

Key Highlights

· Soybeans: December imports reached 8.04 million tons, up 1.3% year on year

· Crude oil: December imports totaled 55.97 million tons, up 17% year on year

· Unwrought copper: December imports reached 437,000 tons, up 2.3% month on month

· Coal: December imports totaled 58.59 million tons, up 12% year on year

· Iron ore: December imports reached 119.65 million tons, up 8.2% month on month

· Steel: December exports totaled 11.3 million tons, up 16% year on year

· Rare earths: December exports fell to 4,392.1 tons, down 20% month on month

Below is a preliminary table of commodity trade data, followed by analysts' comments.

Commentary on Soybeans

Wang Wenshen, Analyst, Shandong Chonggao China Information

“China's soybean imports in December were broadly in line with market expectations. However, customs clearance delays slowed the circulation of imported soybeans, prompting some crushing plants to suspend operations or reduce deliveries due to supply shortages.”

“Looking ahead, soybean arrivals are expected to reach 7.48 million tons in January and 5.2 million tons in February, indicating a tightening supply outlook.”

Commentary on Iron Ore

Bai Xin, Analyst, Horizon Insights, Shanghai

“We forecast global iron ore output to grow 2.5% year on year in 2026, with shipments to China expected to increase by 36–38 million tons, which will put downward pressure on prices this year.”

Pei Hao, Analyst, Freight Investor Services, Shanghai

“Part of the strong growth in China's iron ore imports in 2025 was driven by miners accelerating shipment targets to improve their financial positions. At the same time, healthy profit margins at Chinese steel mills supported robust iron ore consumption.”

“China's total iron ore demand is expected to remain stable in 2026.”

Commentary on Steel

Pei Hao, Analyst, Freight Investor Services, Shanghai

“Steel exports hit a record high last year as Chinese mills adopted a ‘price-for-volume' strategy to offset domestic oversupply and gain pricing advantages. In addition, expectations of higher tariffs triggered a wave of preemptive export shipments.”

“The introduction of an export licensing system will increase compliance costs and curb exports of low-quality semi-finished steel products.”

“High-quality steel products are typically lighter and more durable, meaning lower shipment volumes by tonnage. Against this backdrop, we expect China's steel exports to decline in 2026.”

Commentary on Crude Oil

Ye Lin, Vice President, Rystad Energy, Singapore

“China's average increase in crude oil inventories in 2025 was 430,000 barrels per day, up from 84,000 barrels per day in 2024, with half of the growth driven by expanded storage capacity at state-owned and independent companies.”

“Amid rising geopolitical tensions, energy security remains the primary driver behind China's oil stockpiling. Low prices have also played a key role, as sanctions have pushed China's average crude purchase price about $10 per barrel lower than projected 2024 levels.”

Emma Li, Analyst, Vortexa, Singapore

“Despite the domestic economy not having fully recovered, China's seaborne crude oil imports climbed to a record 12 million barrels per day in December 2025.”

“More than 35 million barrels—around 1.1 million barrels per day—flowed into onshore crude inventories, leaving adjusted refinery throughput largely unchanged from the previous month.”

“Crude oil inventories in Guangdong rose by more than 12 million barrels, mainly at state-owned storage facilities linked to Sinopec's Maoming refinery and PetroChina's Jieyang refinery. Meanwhile, inventories in Shandong increased by nearly 15 million barrels, consistent with record-high crude imports into the province from November to December.”

“By contrast, crude imports from Iran fell below 1.3 million barrels per day in December, down from more than 1.5 million barrels per day in November, as increased Russian supply crowded out some Iranian barrels.”